I’m sure I’m not the only person that after building something will sometimes find a small pile of odds’n’ends that one hopes does not belong in the completed product. This part of the awards is like that pile of parts; as I was arranging awards into the various groups I started accumulating awards that didn’t really fit with the others. Instead of putting these categories in a little bag and forgetting about them until something goes wrong, I decided to add this fourth part to be able to cover them as well.

Before getting to the awards, as a reminder, I’ll try to keep spoilers to a minimum but there’ll be some because of how they’ll relate to specific awards. As for the continuing shows, only the part of the series that ran during this year is under consideration for this year’s awards.

 

Best Villain

Seasonal Winners:

Winter – Kyubey from Puella Magi Madoka Magica

Spring – Heaven from Dororon Enma-kun Meeramera

Summer – CERN from Steins;Gate

Autumn – Ades Federation from Last Exile — Ginyoku no Fam

Wildcard –  Ouroboros from Tiger and Bunny

Overall Winner: Kyubey from Puella Magi Madoka Magica

Kyubey is insidious and dangerous – the truer portrait of evil in the world; without him PM3 would not have been nearly as good. I read in an interview that Shinbou had wanted Kyubey to be animated like a normal cute magic girls mascot but the animators knew too much about Kyubey and could not draw him anyway but creepy.

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Best Dressed Characters

Seasonal Winners:

Winter – Star Driver

Spring – Denpa Onna to Seishun Otoko

Summer – Nichijou

Autumn – Chihayafuru

Wildcard – Hyouge Mono

Overall Winner: Nichijou

I really should just name this the “KyoAni Production Values and Fashion Sense Award” and be done with it but I hold the hope that someday, someone will outmaneuver KyoAni. In all honesty, though, it is slowly becoming more of a competition.

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Best Fight

Seasonal Winners:

Winter – Episode 7 from Puella Magi Madoka Magica

Spring – Episode 12 of Dororon Enma-kun Meeramera

Summer – Episode 16 of Ao no Exorcist

Autumn –Episode 2 of Ben-To

Wildcard –  Episode 10 of Ben-To

Overall Winner: Episode 2 of Ben-To

Ben-to should be required watching for most animators before they try their hand at animating a fight scene. I’m looking at you J.C. Staff and Bones and AIC for starters; Shana and Star Driver and Persona could really be helped by including fights that are actually well done. I’m also going to throw Fate/Zero in as needing help; all the posing and monologuing gets old – spend a little less on the backgrounds and more on animating fights.

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Most Unexpectedly Good Show

Seasonal Winners:

Winter – Level E

Spring – Hyouge Mono

Summer – Mayo Chiki

Autumn – Ben-To

Wildcard –  Dororon Enma-kun Meeramera

Overall Winner: Ben-To

Episode 2 of Ben-to won best fight in part because it helped sale the anime to the viewer because the premise behind Ben-To did not seem like the recipe to create a great anime and we needed the convincing. While Ben-to was the clear winner, it seems like every season of anime includes at least one anime that is shockingly good, the proverbial diamond-in-the-rough, which is why one needs to have an open mind when deciding which anime to try.

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Best Show No One Saw

Seasonal Winners:

Winter – Level E

Spring – Hyouge Mono

Summer – Ikoku Meiro no Croisee

Autumn – Tamayura – Hitotose

Wildcard –  Rio – Rainbow Gate

Overall Winner: Hyouge Mono

Saying that no one watched these shows is stretching the truth since each title had it’s fans but in each case the anime failed to really catch fire on a large-scale (at least initially). Hyouge Mono won because it’s a great show and it’s been basically ignored by the subbing community. I’m thankful that there is at least one group subbing it but the slow speed probably implies a single person is doing everything himself/herself and that makes me worried because something might come up and it’ll never get finished.

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Most in Need of a Sequel

Seasonal Winners:

Winter – Puella Magi Madoka Magica

Spring – Denpa Onna to Seishun Otoko

Summer – Kamisama Dolls

Autumn – Un-Go

Wildcard –  Hanasaku Iroha, Ikoku Meiro no Croisee

Overall Winner: Kamisama Dolls

There were flaws with Kamisama Dolls but the first season (see how I’m hoping) accomplished much between the introduction of an interesting setting and the promise of more surprises just waiting to be discovered. It’s also the title that most gains from a sequel. In the case of PM3, the series was perfect by itself but, much like Toy Story, if a story can be created that can equal/surpass the original then it should get made. Un-Go might be better served by redoing it’s 11 episode run into something longer where the defects of the short episode count could be addressed.

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Best Anime Extra

Nominees:

Young Animators Training Program

Ikoku Meiro no Croisée Episode 4.5

Shiki Episodes 20.5 and 21.5

Umi Kara no Shisha

Overall Winner: Young Animators Training Program

The four shorts that comprise the Young Animators Training Program are the result of a Japanese government program to help ensure the continued health of the local animation industry. How successful such an idea will ultimately be is open to debate but judging by the end result, there’s definitely much worse ways to spend other people’s money. An even more obscure nominee is Umi Kara no Shisha (trailer seen here). I happened to come across it, decided to watch it sight unseen, and was blown away by equal measures of WTF?! and awesome. At only 8.5 minutes long it’s well worth a watch or three.

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Best Anime OVA Seen in 2011

Nominees:

Yozakura Quartet OVA

Hidamari Sketch SP

Kara no Kyoukai – Epilogue

Katte ni Kaizo

Carnival Phantasm

Toradora OVA

Overall Winner: Yozakura Quartet OVA

A dim memory of watching the Yozakura Quartet anime series – released several years ago – and finding it completely boring, generic, and forgettable stopped me from bothering with the Yozakura Quartet OVA. That is until I read a review of the third episode and it was mentioned that Ryo-timo was animating and directing this OVA series. That name had recently became meaningful when I realized some of my favorite animation scenes from Noein and Birdy: The Mighty Decode had their key animation done by Ryo-timo. I decided that I had to watch it and was pleasantly surprised to find the OVA turned the boring, generic, and forgettable anime into a pretty good anime. The animation was the big draw but the story and plot were given a boost at well.

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Best Anime Movie Seen in 2011

Nominees:

Redline

Evangelion 2.22

Summer Wars (English Dub)

Sengoku Basara: The Last Party

Lupin III: Blood Seal – Eternal Mermaid

Overall Winner: Redline

There are a few anime movies that I didn’t see this year that appear to be worth a nomination from what I’ve been reading . One such movie, The World of Arriety, I’m purposely waiting on the chance to see it in theaters. As such those movies will most likely show up on next year’s nominee list but it’s not like I’m left to pick from a list of second-tier movies. The winner, Redline, is a feast for the eyes and a feast for the little kid inside that thinks driving a fast car is the most awesome thing in the world. It’s a memorable experience; the type that comes only once in a blue moon.

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That’s part 4 of my retrospective look at the 2011 year in anime. Next will see a shift from award categories to counting down the top anime of the year.

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Top anime 2011 Awards Part 0: Introduction and Anti-Awards
Top anime 2011 Awards Part 1: Cast and Character Awards
Top anime 2011 Awards Part 2: Genre and General Awards
Top anime 2011 Awards Part 3: VMA Awards
Top anime 2011 Awards Part 4: The Misfit Awards <- you are here
Top anime 2011 Awards: Top 13 Anime – #13 – #7
Top anime 2011 Awards: Top 13 Anime – #6 – #1

Filed under: anime, awards

So I watched Redline last week, and it is one fine film, definitely worth checking out. But this post is specifically about one of the plot points in the movie: that protagonist JP and his partner Frisbee fix races for the mafia, which they do by having JP hang back until the last quarter of the race, suddenly take the lead, before ultimately losing the race. There will be some minor spoilers.

I got to thinking what kind of scheme the mafia had going that allowed them to profit from this situation, and what they needed JP to do. And it made me realize that, given JP’s capabilities, they could have fixed it a different way which would have allowed them to profit regardless of whether or not JP lost the race.

First of all, what was the mafia’s business model in Redline? At first, I thought it was by being the house and enticing people to make many losing bets on JP by making him look like a sure thing at the end of the race. But towards the end of the Yellowline race that started the movie, the mafia boss’s underling came to him and said that “all their positions on JP” had been “unloaded.” This implies that, in fact, the mafia no longer had any bets for or against JP at that point, so they had no reason to care whether or not JP won. It also implies that there is an after-market for these bets that they could sell already-made bets to.

So I’m not sure what scheme they had going on (if anyone is, please let me know in the comments!). But it seemed like they were pretty dependent on JP’s capabilities: JP needed to be someone capable of both (a) convincingly being an underdog for most of the race and (b) convincingly being the favorite for some of the last part of the race. And, of course, the mafia was quite insistent that (c) JP lose the race.

The fact that JP is conning the spectators twice, first by pretending to be worse than he is, then by pretending to be about to win before losing, should set off an alarm; you only need to con someone once in order to make profit. Indeed, if JP is capable of (a) and (b), there is a pretty safe way for the mafia to fix the race, one that doesn’t care if JP wins or loses.

So here’s the new scheme:

1. Keep JP at or close to last place for most of the race. Make bets for JP as late as possible while he’s still behind.
2. In the last segment of the race, have JP suddenly take the lead. As late as possible, take all those bets you bought for JP and re-sell them in the after-market.
3. Profit! It doesn’t matter who wins the race, because you’ve sold all your bets, and all you’re holding is cash.

How does this work? The key lies in the fact that the bookie must adjust the odds of a bet in a predictable way. And this affects the price at which one can sell bets in the after-market.

First, a quick review of how one accurately determines the value (expected value) of a bet. If you have a ticket representing a $1 bet on JP, its value V is determined pretty simply:

V = Y*Z

where:
Y = payout of the bet.
Z = probability that JP will win.

One thing bookies have to do is to try to keep that expected value V fixed, and under 1. Consistency is important so that you get an even distribution of bets for the racers and under 1 is important so that the house is likely to make a profit. Everyone knows this, so the bookie must follow this behavior so that there is no suspicion of foul play. As Z fluctuates throughout the race, the bookie must change Y in the opposite direction to keep V as close to constant as possible (of course, there is flexibility in real life, since no one truly knows the value of Z).

Here’s an example using dummy numbers. Let’s say the bookie wants to keep V at 0.9 throughout the race. During phase 1, when JP is far back in the pack, Z is very low, making Y very high. Let’s say that, when the mafia bets on JP, Z(1) = 1/10,000 – probability of JP winning is 1/10,000. Then the bookie sets Y(1) = 9,000 – the $1 ticket that the mafia bought will pay out $9,000 if JP should win.

But then enter phase 2: JP surges to take the lead. Now, Z(2) = 1/10. The bookie adjusts the odds accordingly so that Y(2) = 9. But the mafia has already bought a lot of bets that will pay out 9,000 instead of 9. So the mafia turns around to the bettors and offers to sell these bets to them, for a premium, of course. These bets are now worth Y(1) * Z(2) = 9,000 * 1/10 = $900.

If bettors were willing to purchase bets worth $0.90 for $1, then they should be willing to purchase a bet worth $900 for $1,000. Let’s say the mafia offers it to them for $900, to entice them with a better deal compared to what the house is offering. In fact, the expected value of the bet is 1 at the price of $900, so ignoring risk aversion, there is no reason NOT to take it (plus, gamblers tend not to be very risk averse people).

And then, the mafia walks away. It has “unloaded” all its “positions on JP” and is sitting on a pile of cash. It bought bets for $1 that it sold for $900, a nice 89,900% profit. Of course, these are dummy numbers, but as long as the bookie follows this predictable behavior, and as long as the after-market is liquid enough for the mafia to resell all their bets to bettors, the mafia will profit. Using more reasonable numbers, even if the jump between phases 1 and 2 of Z was from 1/50 to 1/10, and V was fixed at 0.5, the mafia would make a 150% profit.

This fix is almost exactly what insider trading is in the stock market. In this case, JP (or more specifically, the probability that JP will win) is the stock, and the non-public information is the knowledge that (as well as of when) JP’s probability of winning will skyrocket. It would be like an insider knowing that a company will soon be bought up by another company and buying lots of shares in that company’s stock before it happens.

Here, the mafia is in an even better situation than insiders, because they are actively manipulating the stock instead of just knowing how the stock will move. The incentives line up so that the mafia wants Z(1) to be as low as possible and Z(2) to be as high as possible. Both are accomplished by having the phases 1 and 2 end as late as possible in the race; as it gets closer to the finish, the odds tend to get more extreme: the probability that someone who’s behind will win gets lower, and the probability that someone who’s in the lead will win gets higher.

It will look awfully suspicious both to bettors and to law enforcement if you see one player buy and sell huge bets at such times. So the mafia would want to hire many bettors to do this, perhaps during slightly staggered times, and on much smaller scales as not to arouse suspicion. So the profit would be slightly variable, and the bettors would have to get their cut. It would also create more possible holes, more people who could talk to the police. Still, don’t you think the mafia boss would’ve preferred to take on that extra risk given to what happened?

Of course, if the mafia had done this and hadn’t cared about whether or not JP would win or lose, we wouldn’t have gotten the awesome moment when Frisbee was saved, nor would we have gotten the epic finish with the planted bomb. So all in all, I guess it was for the best.