So I watched Redline last week, and it is one fine film, definitely worth checking out. But this post is specifically about one of the plot points in the movie: that protagonist JP and his partner Frisbee fix races for the mafia, which they do by having JP hang back until the last quarter of the race, suddenly take the lead, before ultimately losing the race. There will be some minor spoilers.

I got to thinking what kind of scheme the mafia had going that allowed them to profit from this situation, and what they needed JP to do. And it made me realize that, given JP’s capabilities, they could have fixed it a different way which would have allowed them to profit regardless of whether or not JP lost the race.

First of all, what was the mafia’s business model in Redline? At first, I thought it was by being the house and enticing people to make many losing bets on JP by making him look like a sure thing at the end of the race. But towards the end of the Yellowline race that started the movie, the mafia boss’s underling came to him and said that “all their positions on JP” had been “unloaded.” This implies that, in fact, the mafia no longer had any bets for or against JP at that point, so they had no reason to care whether or not JP won. It also implies that there is an after-market for these bets that they could sell already-made bets to.

So I’m not sure what scheme they had going on (if anyone is, please let me know in the comments!). But it seemed like they were pretty dependent on JP’s capabilities: JP needed to be someone capable of both (a) convincingly being an underdog for most of the race and (b) convincingly being the favorite for some of the last part of the race. And, of course, the mafia was quite insistent that (c) JP lose the race.

The fact that JP is conning the spectators twice, first by pretending to be worse than he is, then by pretending to be about to win before losing, should set off an alarm; you only need to con someone once in order to make profit. Indeed, if JP is capable of (a) and (b), there is a pretty safe way for the mafia to fix the race, one that doesn’t care if JP wins or loses.

So here’s the new scheme:

1. Keep JP at or close to last place for most of the race. Make bets for JP as late as possible while he’s still behind.
2. In the last segment of the race, have JP suddenly take the lead. As late as possible, take all those bets you bought for JP and re-sell them in the after-market.
3. Profit! It doesn’t matter who wins the race, because you’ve sold all your bets, and all you’re holding is cash.

How does this work? The key lies in the fact that the bookie must adjust the odds of a bet in a predictable way. And this affects the price at which one can sell bets in the after-market.

First, a quick review of how one accurately determines the value (expected value) of a bet. If you have a ticket representing a $1 bet on JP, its value V is determined pretty simply:

V = Y*Z

where:
Y = payout of the bet.
Z = probability that JP will win.

One thing bookies have to do is to try to keep that expected value V fixed, and under 1. Consistency is important so that you get an even distribution of bets for the racers and under 1 is important so that the house is likely to make a profit. Everyone knows this, so the bookie must follow this behavior so that there is no suspicion of foul play. As Z fluctuates throughout the race, the bookie must change Y in the opposite direction to keep V as close to constant as possible (of course, there is flexibility in real life, since no one truly knows the value of Z).

Here’s an example using dummy numbers. Let’s say the bookie wants to keep V at 0.9 throughout the race. During phase 1, when JP is far back in the pack, Z is very low, making Y very high. Let’s say that, when the mafia bets on JP, Z(1) = 1/10,000 – probability of JP winning is 1/10,000. Then the bookie sets Y(1) = 9,000 – the $1 ticket that the mafia bought will pay out $9,000 if JP should win.

But then enter phase 2: JP surges to take the lead. Now, Z(2) = 1/10. The bookie adjusts the odds accordingly so that Y(2) = 9. But the mafia has already bought a lot of bets that will pay out 9,000 instead of 9. So the mafia turns around to the bettors and offers to sell these bets to them, for a premium, of course. These bets are now worth Y(1) * Z(2) = 9,000 * 1/10 = $900.

If bettors were willing to purchase bets worth $0.90 for $1, then they should be willing to purchase a bet worth $900 for $1,000. Let’s say the mafia offers it to them for $900, to entice them with a better deal compared to what the house is offering. In fact, the expected value of the bet is 1 at the price of $900, so ignoring risk aversion, there is no reason NOT to take it (plus, gamblers tend not to be very risk averse people).

And then, the mafia walks away. It has “unloaded” all its “positions on JP” and is sitting on a pile of cash. It bought bets for $1 that it sold for $900, a nice 89,900% profit. Of course, these are dummy numbers, but as long as the bookie follows this predictable behavior, and as long as the after-market is liquid enough for the mafia to resell all their bets to bettors, the mafia will profit. Using more reasonable numbers, even if the jump between phases 1 and 2 of Z was from 1/50 to 1/10, and V was fixed at 0.5, the mafia would make a 150% profit.

This fix is almost exactly what insider trading is in the stock market. In this case, JP (or more specifically, the probability that JP will win) is the stock, and the non-public information is the knowledge that (as well as of when) JP’s probability of winning will skyrocket. It would be like an insider knowing that a company will soon be bought up by another company and buying lots of shares in that company’s stock before it happens.

Here, the mafia is in an even better situation than insiders, because they are actively manipulating the stock instead of just knowing how the stock will move. The incentives line up so that the mafia wants Z(1) to be as low as possible and Z(2) to be as high as possible. Both are accomplished by having the phases 1 and 2 end as late as possible in the race; as it gets closer to the finish, the odds tend to get more extreme: the probability that someone who’s behind will win gets lower, and the probability that someone who’s in the lead will win gets higher.

It will look awfully suspicious both to bettors and to law enforcement if you see one player buy and sell huge bets at such times. So the mafia would want to hire many bettors to do this, perhaps during slightly staggered times, and on much smaller scales as not to arouse suspicion. So the profit would be slightly variable, and the bettors would have to get their cut. It would also create more possible holes, more people who could talk to the police. Still, don’t you think the mafia boss would’ve preferred to take on that extra risk given to what happened?

Of course, if the mafia had done this and hadn’t cared about whether or not JP would win or lose, we wouldn’t have gotten the awesome moment when Frisbee was saved, nor would we have gotten the epic finish with the planted bomb. So all in all, I guess it was for the best.

This past weekend was the New York Anime Festival, which was combined with New York Comic Convention. Being located about 4 hours away in Boston and hearing that The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya would be playing, I decided to make the trek down. Here is a chronicle of what I saw and experienced there. I originally intended to make one post, but the post on Friday alone was getting too long, so I’ll split this into two parts. Saturday and Sunday were much less eventful than Friday, so the second post may end up shorter than this one.

Table of Contents

• Getting There
• Minori Chihara Panel
• Anime in Academia Panel
• Minori Chihara Autograph
• Disappearance Screening
• The Evening Afterward

Getting There

First of all, getting to the place was pretty hectic. Not crazy, but I had to get up at 5:30 in order to get to the train station to catch a 7am bus from Boston to New York. The trip was supposed to last 4 hours 15 minutes, so with an arrival time of 11:15, but the actual arrival time was 12:10. Also, wifi on the bus wasn’t working, so I was limited to using 3G on my phone instead of wifi on my laptop. Here’s a tip: never use Megabus.

The bus dropped us off at West 28th and 7th, and with my hotel on West 39th and 9th, I hurried to get there. I ran with my suitcase rolling behind me on the New York City streets, to check in so that I could get to the con in time for opening at 1:00. Why did I want to get there so soon? Bandai was giving out tickets for autographs by Minori Chihara to the first 100 people to buy Haruhi related products at their booth, and I wanted to be one of them. I’m actually not a fan of Minori Chihara at all, but, what the hell, she’s the only actual Japanese voice actor to be at a convention I’m attending, so why not get her signature, right?

Once at the con, the line to get in was huge, but it moved very quickly, only taking maybe 20 minutes at most. I snapped a photo of my first cosplayer there, a great Rena Ryuugu who was a little in front of me. I also got to shake hands with Stan Lee as he passed by. I’m no US comic book fan, but it was Stan. Fucking. Lee.

The line led to the entrance to the show floor, and, wouldn’t you know it, Bandai’s booth was right at the entrance, and they still had tickets left! I bought the first season of The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya collection on DVD – I actually didn’t own it before – and collected my ticket. The festival was off to a good start.

Let me make a note about the layout of the place. The Jacob K. Javits Center is a big place, and the entire 3rd floor was divided into 2 huge show floors. There was a section with vendors on the right side, and an area for smaller vendors, gaming, and artists on the left. These were all Comic Con related stuff, except for a small corner on the right where there was the Bandai booth, and another small corner on the left with a stage. At the beginning of the convention on Friday, there were girls dressed up as the K-On girls and playing those songs. One of them was Mio’s dub voice actor, I believe.

The actual anime festival part was at a small basement area on the lower left of the building. An escalator led straight down to the anime artists’ alley. To the right was a “maid cafe,” which was just a bunch of tables and chairs in front of a small stage where some singers performed. Past those were 4 rooms for panels including 1E09, which was 3 times as big as the others and used for the main events. This was the room in which the Minori Chihara panel and the Disappearance screening were held.

Minori Chihara Panel

The first actual event I went to was the Minori Chihara panel that went from 3:15 to 4:15. I’ve never been to a voice actor panel before, but I’m guessing this was a pretty standard one. A translator and a handler was up there along with Chihara, and no photos or video were allowed until the end. There were some brief comments by Chihara, mainly about the trip to New York, and then Q&A for the rest of the time.

(Occult Academy spoilers below)

Chihara herself did an amazing job selling herself. She was absolutely adorable, both in looks and in voice. She spoke in a way very similar to how she played Mikaze in Occult Academy, which is fitting, because that was all just an act as well, designed to lure in the audience with a false image. Speaking of which, one of the questions that I considered asking was on how she decided to play Mikaze, knowing that she would ultimately turn out to be a villain. I decided against asking it, because it contained spoilers for a show that had just finished airing, but someone else went ahead and asked it anyway. And although the cat was out of the bag at that point, the handler decided against answering the question because of the same reason I didn’t ask it.

(end of Occult Academy spoilers)

I also wanted to ask her if she was afraid of being typecast because soon after playing Yuki Nagato, she had played similarly monotone characters in both Lucky Star and Minami-ke, but we ran out of time before that.

Anime in Academia Panel

Next was the Anime in Academia panel, a discussion panel run by Alex Leavitt, and featuring 3 panelists, Casey Brienza, Mikhail Koulikov, and Jennifer Fu. You can read about who these people are on Alex Leavitt’s own blog, Department of Alchemy, on which he also posted the audio of the panel. I’ll note that I had actually met Jennifer Fu before as well, at the MIT anime club, which is open to students outside of MIT. I found most interesting the parts when they discussed how to actually find research material, as well as the ethical dilemma of using pirated material. The difficulties of getting published and the extremely high quality of writing expected in academic journals, well, I think anyone who’s done research in college must understand that. I was mainly a math/science student in college, and even in those fields, the quality of writing has to be top notch, so I can only imagine how stringent the quality must be in softer fields like sociology or Asian American studies.

Minori Chihara Autograph

Next was the actual Minori Chihara signing at the Bandai booth upstairs. That was at 6pm, and I was very paranoid about missing the 8pm screening of The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya, because I assumed that people would line up for it around this time (turns out, my fears were unfounded, and I ended up getting a front row seat). Anyway, I was the last person in line, but Bandai did a great job moving the line quickly, each person only getting like 15 seconds with Chihara. I decided to get the cover of the DVD set I bought earlier signed.

So yeah, I then rushed back downstairs to room 1E09, only to find it mostly empty, and no one lined up. Across the hall was a Hatsune Miku panel, which featured guests from Crypton Future Media Inc, the actual company that created the Vocaloid software and characters. It was absolutely packed, and I could only stand at the doorway, but that worked for me, because I was keeping an eye out at room 1E09, in case too many people were going in. It was pretty cool to see the actual creators of Hatsune Miku and friends, and they mentioned that if 39,390 fans “like” their Facebook page, they would create an English speaking Vocaloid (3-9 is a pun on the name Mi-ku). Now, I’m sure they’re counting on the fact that there won’t be that many fans signing up, and at last count, it was only around 18,000, but what the hell, if you have a Facebook account, do it anyway and try putting them in a tough position.

And finally, to cap off the day at the convention was the screening of The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya.

Disappearance Screening

I was lucky enough to find a single seat at the very front of the room. The Miku panel was over at 7, so I waited for about an hour in the seat, and I met a couple of friendly guys from Maine who were into some of the same things as myself, namely, Type-Moon and Vocaloid. One of the two had even dabbled in making songs using Megurine Luka. Jay and Colin, if you’re reading this, you guys were a couple of the best single-serving friends ever!

When 8 o’clock rolled around, Minori Chihara appeared once again, along with her handlers and a representative from Bandai. There were just a few brief forgettable comments, and then the movie began.

It was a lot of fun watching the movie in a large room full of fans. Everyone laughed along at the in-jokes, cheered at the cute moments, and there were audible gasps at the truly OH SHI- moments. It was basically what I expected; a lot like watching a movie at a theater, just where everyone was a fan. There was a hitch in the reel switching midway into the movie – yes, this was shown from a full 35mm reel – but it caused us to miss only about 5 seconds, so it was no big deal.

As for the contents of the movie, well, you can read my full review of the movie. I will say that I went in extremely skeptical. I loved the first season to death, but I’ve hated everything else Kyoto Animation has done since, i.e. Kanon, Lucky Star, Clannad, K-On, and, yes, the second season of The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya. I had also already read the novel on which this movie was based, and I hadn’t thought too much of it. But everyone who had seen the movie had raved about it, which is why I was so dead set on watching it in the first place.

There was a dumb grin on my face all the way back to my trip back to the hotel. Day one of NYAF was over, and it alone had been worth the price of entry.

The Evening Afterward

The movie being 2 hours 40 minutes long, it was 11 by the time I got back to my hotel. I was pretty exhausted from the extra long day – even on workdays, I generally get up past 9 – but hey, I was in New York City, the city that never sleeps! I decided to take a walk outside, find a bar with some food, because I hadn’t had a proper meal all day (I did have a horrible convention center cheeseburger, but that was neither tasty nor satisfying). Unfortunately, even in New York, it seems bars close their kitchens for the evening, so I ended up walking a while before finding a nice Italian place called Mercato, on the corner of West 39th and 9th. I spent $47 on a lasagna and 2 mixed drinks. The first drink I had was called the Singapore Sling, and it was absolutely wonderful. And Mercato itself is great if you don’t mind paying the premium. Check it out sometime if you’re ever in the area.

A more interesting thing happened during my initial walkabout. I had my phone out, search on Google Maps for a place nearby that might be open, when a limo driver (he was standing next to an open limo) came up to me and asked me to use my phone. His phone battery was dead, you see. I’m usually very skeptical in situations like this, but I was feeling pretty good – probably a high from having just watched Disappearance and the sleep deprivation – so I offered to dial the number for him and to put him on speaker. There was a brief scuffle when he tried to grab the phone, but I held a firm grip and insisted that I’d be more comfortable holding it. Everything went smoothly, the dude made his call, and I walked away feeling a bit weird but good about myself, too.

It was about 1AM by the time I got back to my hotel room, and I probably fell asleep at around 1:30.

So that was the first day of New York Anime Festival for me. To be honest, I could’ve gone home happy at this point. But there were 2 more days, so stay tuned. And if you were also there, please leave a comment! Especially if you saw an Asian dude with glasses, a grey FLCL cap and a large camera bag slung over his shoulder.

Here’s the short version: whatever you’ve heard about it is true; it’s really that good. The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya is an absolutely stunning film that succeeds on every level. It does not make up for the horrible second season, but if you liked the first season of The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya and long for more of something of that caliber, this is a must-watch. You will not be disappointed.

If you actually want me to expand on those thoughts, proceed downward (note: like any proper review, this will contain no spoilers, although I will delve into story bits when necessary).

Let’s first make one thing clear: you must watch the TV show The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya in order to understand Disappearance. It is a sequel that depends on the first work, and there is just no getting around that. Of course, if you’re reading this, chances are high that you’ve already seen both seasons of the show. But in case you haven’t, make sure to watch it in the following order: 1. Season 1 in airing (not chronological) order, 2. Bamboo Leaf Rhapsody, 3. 1st and last episodes of Endless Eight, 4. The Sighs of Haruhi Suzumiya. Don’t make the mistake of watching all 8 episodes of Endless Eight.

As I write above, Disappearance is a direct sequel to the TV show, taking place in December of the protagonist Kyon’s first year at high school. The movie starts off with a brief set up to Kyon’s daily school life before he awakens one day to find that the entire world has changed around him, with him the only one aware of this. Haruhi Suzumiya has literally disappeared, and the one sitting behind him is, well, I won’t spoil that bit for you. Gone along with Haruhi is the should-be transfer student Koizumi Itsuki, and while Mikuru Asahina and Yuki Nagato are still at the school, the former doesn’t know him, and the latter is still the glasses-wearing girl, the sole member of the literature club whose room that Haruhi had taken over when starting the SOS Brigade in the show. That’s when the story really begins, as Kyon attempts to untangle the mystery of this sudden shift in timeline, to find the one responsible for it, and to figure out a way to go back.

Technically speaking, Disappearance follows Kyoto Animation’s tradition of being ridiculously well animated. It sometimes takes things a step too far, and the over-smoothness of some of the animations look unnatural, but all things considered, that’s a good problem to have. The cinematography is excellent throughout, reminiscent mostly of the anime original episode, Some Day in the Rain in its wide angle shots of rooms and long single-take cuts. The music is subtle and serves its purpose, though the use of new versions of the same tunes from the show will definitely please the fans. Unusual for a movie, it features an opening sequence, using the first season’s opening song, Bouken Desho Desho? – as if to help us forget about the epic failure that was the second season.

At the surface, the movie is just plain fun. It doesn’t lose the lighthearted sense of humor of the show. Most of the comedy is at the beginning, as Kyon first discovers the differences of this new world, leading to some very embarrassing situations. His run in with Mikuru involving the mention of her unique mole was particularly humorous. But the movie remains amusing throughout, revitalized when Haruhi finally makes her triumphant reappearance and acts in ways Haruhi only could. Throughout, Kyon’s narration is as dry and sarcastic as ever.

The scifi/mystery-thriller aspects are also well executed. The pacing is sublime, never lingering on any situation for too long, but also never feeling hurried or rushed. The movie keeps you hooked with its constant twists and turns, always leaving you in anticipation and maybe even a bit uncomfortable, but never frustrated. The fact that this movie is 163 minutes long may scare some away – it certainly scared me, though obviously not enough to keep me from watching it – but this is one that uses every bit of time it has to the fullest extent. There are some awesome OHSHI- moments as well, which would be criminal for me to spoil for you here.

But simple entertainment was never the hook for Melancholy. Though the show succeeded in that regard, what made it special was the subtle emotional and personal story taking place, specifically between Kyon and Haruhi. The show was ultimately a high school romance story of those two characters with the science fiction/fantasy comedy genre being used as a vehicle, and it was that layer that had made it, in my humble opinion, the best TV anime of this past decade. And Disappearance exploits that same method to be not just an enjoyable movie, but also a deeply meaningful and emotional one.

In that context, Disappearance is the story of a couple separating and realizing that they can’t go on without the other. It’s mainly told from one end, Kyon’s, but both parts are there. Perhaps for the first time ever, Kyon is actually honest to himself about his feelings regarding Haruhi and the SOS Brigade. Kyon performs far more introspection than he ever did in the show. Some of his internal scenes are reminiscent of the scene at the train crossing from the episode The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya Part 5, in which Haruhi explains to Kyon how she decided to be the way she was. Kyon’s inner struggles feel honest and heartfelt, and there is a powerful feeling of release and relief when he reaches epiphany.

But the movie takes things even a step further than the show and examines the relationship Kyon has with other members of the SOS brigade. Nagato is the one that receives the most focus. Perhaps the purpose of Endless Eight was to give us just a small taste of the pain that Nagato had to go through during the 15,000+ cycles she had to live through. And the conversation that Kyon has with Nagato at the very end of the movie simultaneously leaves us feeling ache and hope in the heart.

Indeed, one could interpret that the whole movie was about Nagato and designed to make us sympathize with a character whose physical manifestations of emotion have only been subtle up to this point. It makes us ponder, what issues face one who is effectively omnipotent, but at the same time is not allowed to make any decisions in how to use that power? How does she, quite literally a slave, deal with them? More than that, it makes us sympathize with her, to feel for her plight, and to want to fight for her. This is a somewhat common theme in the realm of science fiction, and Kyoto Animation presents it to us in a way that can only be presented in the world of Haruhi Suzumiya. I don’t consider that to be the main focus of the movie, but it is undoubtedly a key element of it that is integral to making it as powerful as it is.

The other members get their moments too, though they are mainly there for fanservice. An adult Asahina gets to spend some time alone with Kyon and reminisce about her fun days. And Koizumi, the one who has always seemed easygoing and bright shows us a small glimpse into the pain and heartbreak he must experience due to his position. Besides the members of the SOS Brigade, Kyon’s friends Taniguchi and Kunikida get plenty of the screen time they couldn’t get in the show.

All in all, The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya is an amazing film. Don’t let its near 3-hour run time or the bad taste from season 2′s Endless Eight scare you off. If you are lucky enough to live near one of the places it is showing in theaters, go see it. Does it make up for the debacle of Endless Eight? No, but nothing can. This movie comes as close as possible, though, and reminds us of why we first fell in love with the world of Haruhi in the first place. In not only recapturing the magic of the first season of The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya but expanding upon it, Disappearance truly is a marvelous achievement.

I’m not much one for attaching numbers to reviews, but, for what it’s worth, I give it 5 out of 5 stars, a perfect 10/10, A+, etc. This is the best anime movie I’ve seen since… well, Evangelion 2.22, which I saw earlier this year. So that’s actually not saying much. But this is a movie that easily ranks right along with it, far above anything else in the past decade. Melancholy showed us that Kyoto Animation was capable of creating anime that was not just entertainment but also deeply emotional pieces of work. Disappearance proves to us that that wasn’t just a flash in the pan, and they are very capable of doing it again.

Now, to get them to stop adapting banal 4-koma or vapid visual novels and keep making anime based on award winning novels…

Notes

• I watched this film at its screening last Friday at the New York Anime Festival. I also made a post on the cosplay I saw at the festival.
• Disappearance was originally released to Japanese theaters on February 6, 2010. The DVD and Bluray of the film will be released in Japan on December 18, 2010. The film has been licensed by Bandai Entertainment and is currently set to be released on DVD and Bluray in the US sometime in spring 2011.
• Given the technical excellence of the film, I recommend that you avoid watching the camrip that is floating around and rather wait for the movie proper to be available.
• All art contained in this review are official art by Kyoto Animation from various sources.